According to my calculator ...
- 2128 is around 3.4e+38.
- 204812 is around 5.4e+39
So I guess Andreas is right (unsurprisingly). A randomly chosen 12 word phrase from a 2048-word dictionary has enough entropy to generate any 128-bit seed.
However, I am not a mathematician nor a cryptographer, so there may well be some other important factors I am unaware of.
The fact that the phrase incorporates a checksum must slightly reduce the number of random bits in the generated seed.
BIP39 says this:
We refer to the initial entropy length as ENT. The allowed size of ENT is 128-256 bits.
So BIP39 allows for much greater entropy.
...
The following table describes the relation between the initial entropy length (ENT), the checksum length (CS), and the length of the generated mnemonic sentence (MS) in words.
CS = ENT / 32
MS = (ENT + CS) / 11
| ENT |
CS |
ENT+CS |
MS |
| 128 |
4 |
132 |
12 |
| 160 |
5 |
165 |
15 |
| 192 |
6 |
198 |
18 |
| 224 |
7 |
231 |
21 |
| 256 |
8 |
264 |
24 |
So the checksum is accounted for.
I didn't see much other relevant discusssion of this aspect in the BIP.